Book: Next Decade

George Friedman’s “The Next Decade”

I. Core Themes & Thesis:

• The Tension Between Empire and Republic: Friedman’s central concern is how the United States can exercise its power as an empire (defined by its global reach and influence) while preserving its republican ideals at home. He acknowledges the necessity of power, stating, “I understand that without power there can be no republic. But the question I raise is how the United States should behave in the world while exercising its power, and preserve the republic at the same time.”
• The Unintended Empire: The US finds itself in an imperial role not necessarily by deliberate design, but as a consequence of its economic and military strength. The challenge lies in navigating this reality responsibly. “Morality in foreign policy might be eternal, but it must also be applied to the times. Applying it to the next decade will be particularly difficult, as the next decade poses the challenge of the unintended empire.”
• The Importance of Statesmanship and Policy: While Friedman typically focuses on long-term geopolitical trends, he argues that the next decade is critical for shaping the future. Policy choices made now will have a significant impact. “A decade is the point at which history and statesmanship meet, and a span in which policies still matter…This book is therefore both a forecast and a discussion of the policies that ought to be followed.”
• Balancing Power: A recurring theme is the need for the United States to maintain a balance of power in various regions to prevent any single nation from becoming too dominant and threatening U.S. interests. This often involves playing different actors against each other. The US, according to Friedman, has followed “the classic strategy of empire, encouraging the rivalry between Iran and Iraq, playing off one against the other to balance and thus effectively neutralize the power of each.”
• Economic Power as Foundation: While military might is important, the core of U.S. power is economic. The American economy profoundly shapes global markets. “Many countries have impacts on other countries. What makes the United States an empire is the number of countries it affects, the intensity of the impact, and the number of people in those countries affected by these economic processes and decisions.”
• Realism vs. Idealism: Friedman believes that a balance must be struck between realist and idealist approaches to foreign policy. “If the danger in becoming an empire is that we lose the republic, certainly the realist view of foreign policy would take us there, if not intentionally, then simply through indifference to moral issues. At the same time, idealists would bring down the republic by endangering the nation, not through intent but through hostility or indifference to power.”

II. Key Geopolitical Forecasts & Analysis:

• The Middle East:Iran: Friedman predicts Iran will become the dominant power in the Persian Gulf, particularly with Iraq weakened. He suggests that the United States should consider an accommodation with Iran. “Unless the United States wants to make a huge, long-term commitment of ground forces in Iraq, which it clearly does not, the obvious solution to its problem in the region is to make an accommodation with Iran.”
• Turkey: Friedman sees Turkey as a rising power and a potential counterbalance to Iran in the long term. He emphasizes the importance of a long-term view of Turkey and avoiding actions that could undermine its development. “The only country capable of being a counterbalance to Iran and a potential long-term power in the region is Turkey, and it will achieve that status within the next ten years regardless of what the United States does.”
• Israel: He warns that Israel should avoid actions that draw excessive attention from major powers, particularly the United States. He suggests the United States should “uncouple” its foreign policy from its singular focus on terrorism and re-align with countries with different interests in the region.
• Saudi Arabia: A US-Iranian agreement would redefine US relations with the Saudis. “Thus a U.S.-Iranian entente would also redefine the historic relationship of the United States with the Saudis. The Saudis will have to look at the United States as a guarantor of its interests while trying to reach some political accommodation with Iran.”
• Russia:Resurgence, but with Weaknesses: Friedman acknowledges Russia’s resurgence under Putin, particularly its focus on energy exports. However, he also points out Russia’s underlying structural weaknesses, including its dispersed population and poor infrastructure connectivity. “In the long run, Russia is a weak country. Putin’s strategy of focusing on energy production and export is a superb short-term tool, but it works only if it forms the basis for major economic expansion.”
• German-Russian Entente: Friedman identifies a potential German-Russian alliance as the most significant long-term threat to U.S. interests in Europe. “Russia does not threaten America’s global position, but the mere possibility that it might collaborate with Europe and particularly Germany opens up the most significant threat in the decade, a long-term threat that needs to be nipped in the bud.” He advocates for policies to prevent this, primarily by strengthening the Intermarium countries like Poland.
• NATO Expansion: Friedman asserts that NATO expansion into the Baltics was the high-water mark of NATO expansion. He believes that, while aggressive, the Baltics may be too expensive to maintain due to being indefensible.
• Georgia and the Caucasus: Friedman suggests a strategic withdrawal from Georgia could be used to extract concessions from Russia in Central Asia and stabilize the Intermarium’s psychology.
• Europe:EU Limitations: Friedman argues that the European Union will not evolve into a multinational state capable of being a major world player due to a lack of shared military power and diverging national interests. “The European Union will not disappear, certainly not within the next ten years…But it will not evolve into a multinational state that can be a major player on the world stage.”
• Germany’s Role: Germany will want to distance itself from its Cold War ally, the US, due to growing global concerns.
• Poland: Friedman advocates for making Poland what Germany was in the 1950s, a frontier against a rising Russia. “In the next decade, the United States must work to make Poland what Germany was in the 1950s, although the Russian threat will not be as significant, forceful, or monochromatic as it was then.”
• East Asia:China’s Limitations: While China is growing, Friedman argues that its economic miracle will subside and its naval power will not be able to challenge the US in the next decade. “Neither China nor Japan will emerge as a regional hegemon in the coming decade. The Chinese economic miracle will subside, as all economic miracles do, and China will focus on maintaining stability without rapid growth.”
• Japan’s Resurgence: Friedman suggests that Japan is the country to watch in East Asia, as it will restructure itself internally and align its foreign policy with its global interests.
• Australia: Friedman analyzes Australia’s dependence on international trade and its alliance with the dominant naval power in the Western Pacific (currently the US).
• Latin America:Cuba’s Strategic Importance: Cuba’s location gives it singular importance in the region.
• Argentina as Counterweight to Brazil: The US should slowly strengthen Argentina’s economy and political capabilities so that it rivals Brazil. “The American goal should be to slowly strengthen Argentina’s economic and political capabilities so that over the next twenty to thirty years, should Brazil begin to emerge as a potential threat to the United States, Argentina’s growth rivals Brazil’s.”
• Africa:Lack of Coherent Nation-States: Friedman argues that Africa lacks coherent nation-states due to the legacy of imperialism and internal divisions. “The U.S. strategy of maintaining the balance of power between nation-states in every region of the world assumes two things: first, that there are nation-states in the region, and second, that some have enough power to assert themselves. Absent these factors, there is no fabric of regional power to manage.”
• Egypt’s Uniqueness: Only in Egypt do the nation and state coincide.

III. Implications for U.S. Policy:

• Diversify Military Focus: The United States should not become overly focused on fighting in the Islamic world, but rather maintain a versatile military capable of responding to threats in various regions. “The American military is now obsessed with building a force that can fight in the Islamic world…If that is true, then the United States has already lost, because there is no way it can pacify more than a billion Muslims.” The emphasis should be on naval and space power.
• Energy Independence: The United States should prioritize the development of space-based solar power to achieve energy independence and reduce its dependence on unstable regions.
• Embrace the Unintended Empire Responsibly: Acknowledge the US imperial role and act accordingly with clear strategies and balances of power, but avoid losing republican ideals in the process.

This briefing document captures the key arguments and forecasts presented in the provided excerpts. It emphasizes the importance of strategic thinking, balancing power, and understanding the complex interplay of economic, military, and political factors in shaping the next decade.

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